Desai claims that there are over fifty examples of a particular historical cycle on Earth alone. The few cases that he cites are:
three in China;
three in Egypt;
the Roman Empire;
India;
Technic civilization.
The stages are:
growth;
wrong decisions;
breakdown;
wars;
an Imperial Pax;
dissolution of the Pax;
its reconstitution;
its disintegration;
a dark age;
a new society from the ruins.
The Technic wrong decision was the transformation of the Polesotechnic League into a set of cartels. Prevention of, or recovery from, breakdown is possible but difficult. Usually, the cyclical theory is rationalized, then ignored, then suppressed. What age are we living in?
1 comment:
Kaor, Paul!
* I * think we are living thru an era of societal breakdown and a warring states era, and that this will likely last till SOMEBODY knocks out all rivals and forcibly unifies the world. Or maybe not. I see no obvious would be Napoleon types in our times. True, some fanatical jihadists do aspire to conquer and unify the world under Muslim domination, but that's about it.
A slight correction. The current regime in China does have ambitions to dominate at least the western Pacific region. But I also have my doubts about the long term stability and likely survivability of the regime in Peking.
Sean
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